Trump's won't save Ukraine. But Marine Le Pen's betrayal could be worse | Mujtaba Rahman

European leaders need urgently to prepare for a far-right French president who would cut off Kyiv’s financial lifeline

Europe is consumed by two debates that matter less than it thinks, while neglecting one that matters enormously. The first is who should represent the EU in negotiations with Russia. This is largely irrelevant because there is little prospect of serious Ukraine peace talks before the end of winter - despite the fanfare that has surrounded discussions in Abu Dhabi this week. Russia has powerful incentives to escalate the war over the coming months in an attempt to break Ukraine’s economy and civilian morale.

The second is Donald Trump’s approach to Ukraine. This matters less than it once did – and not only because he is now more constrained by a Democratic Congress. Since returning to office in January 2025, Trump has provided no new US military aid to Kyiv. American weapons sales remain important to Ukraine’s war effort, but Trump’s military interventions in the Middle East have further strained supplies of the weapons Ukraine needs most – notably Patriot interceptors.

Mujtaba Rahman is the managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm

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